ARTICLE PUBLIÉ DANS UNE REVUE SCIENTIFIQUE
Authors: Fagnart, J.-F.; Germain, M; Peeters, B.
Journal: Sustainability 2020, 12, 1176.
Abstract:
The concept of energy return (EROEI ratio) is widely used in energy science to describe the interactions between energy and the economic system but it is largely ignored in macroeconomics. In order to contribute to bridging a gap between these fields of research, we incorporate these metrics into an endogenous growth model with two sectors (energy and final goods) and use this model to analyze the macroeconomic implications of a transition to lower EROEI resources. An approach in terms of net energy allows us (1) to explicitly link the EROEI to macroeconomic variables, (2) to show how it is related to the growth rate of GDP and (3) to obtain a closed-form solution for its long-run value at a general equilibrium level. There is furthermore a tight and decreasing long-run relationship between the EROEI value and the share of investment that must be allocated to the energy sector. Hence, a transition to lower EROEI resources intensifies the rival use of capital in the energy and non-energy sectors and leads to major economic changes, both in the inter-sectoral capital allocation and in the allocation of final output between consumption and investment. We show that a protracted economic contraction may occur before the completion of the transition to renewable energy. We analyze how (1) the magnitude of this contraction and (2) the possibility of an ulterior recovery depend on the initial stock of non-renewables, the potentials of technical progress in the energy and non-energy sectors and the substitutability between capital and energy.
ARTICLES SOUS FORME DE 'DOCUMENTS DE TRAVAIL' (WORKING PAPERS)
Authors: Peeters, B.
Abstracts:
This study assesses the existence of a pattern of short-term financial flows to semi-periphery economies driven by medium-term cycles in center countries, the Center Leader economies’ Industrial-Financial cycles (CLIF cycles). First, a portfolio optimization model discusses how investors’ adjustments to these cycles generate a pattern of cyclical short-term financial flows. Financial inflows to semi-periphery countries evolve countercyclically to medium-term cycles in presence of a large substitution effect (i.e., financial investors shift out of center economies during the downward phases of the cycles). However, this effect competes with a volume effect, symbolizing the variations of the overall amount invested in the global economy. Second, an estimation strategy for the period 1970-2020 is deduced from the theoretical model. Third, the empirical findings indicate that (i) portfolio investments to semi-periphery countries are countercyclical to the medium-term cycles in center economies, supporting the existence of a strong countercyclical substitution effect, (ii) FDI flows are not affected as much as shorter-term financial flows, (iii) financial flows to periphery countries tend to be procyclical, and (iv) financial and trade connections with center economies tend to accentuate the effect of the cycles.
Useful links:
Authors: Peeters, B.; Girard, A.; Gnabo, J.-Y.
Abstracts:
This paper studies international monetary policy spillovers during the last four decades. Changes in monetary relationships among countries are estimated by a time-varying spatial regression model based on local kernel techniques. We use international trade as transmission channels. An identification strategy is proposed to disentanglethe intensity of spillovers from the sensitiveness to foreign monetary policies. Our results indicate that these spillovers are sizable and increased in the 1980s, theearly 1990s, and since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), suggesting that countries partially lost their monetary autonomy during these periods. The sensitiveness to foreign monetary policies rose considerably during the 1980s and subsequently decreased between 1990 and the GFC to reach a more stable level that characterizes the 2010s. Based on a specific identification test to assess the influence of the US, our resultssupport the existence of a multipolar, rather than unipolar, system of central bank decisions. Yet we show that the US interest rate was a major source of monetaryspillovers during the 2000s. Since the GFC, however, the influence of the Fed hasdeclined.
Additional useful links:
- current version of the paper
- dataset of short-term international monetary interest rates
- R code to implement the statistical method
- online appendix of the paper (available after official publication)
Authors: Peeters, B.; Defraigne, J.-C.
Abstract:
This study assesses the existence of a pattern of balance-of-payment financial crises (BOP crises) to semi-periphery economies driven by large medium-term cycles in center countries. Based on the concepts of medium-term cycles and center-periphery, we first introduce the Center Leader economies’Industrial-Financial cycles (CLIF cycles). We then explain how these CLIF cycles trigger large counter-cyclical financial inflows in semi-periphery countries that subsequently create BOP crises. This enables us to account for (i) a periodic pattern characterizing international financial flows between center and semi-periphery economies since the 1970s, and (ii) how this pattern is at the root of the BOP crises in semi-periphery countries. We propose a historical review of the crises in semi-periphery countries since the 1970s. This highlights that the last three major waves of BOP crises in the semi-periphery (during the 1980s, 1994-2001, and 2008-2019) are each linked with an upward and downward phase of the CLIF cycles.
Useful links:
Author: B. Peeters
Abstract:
Globalization has affected monetary transmission channels in diverse ways and has added more complexity to the way monetary policy is transmitted to the real economy. This study reviews notable elements of the empirical literature on the impacts of economic globalization on monetary autonomy. It provides an overview of the main impacts of economic globalization on monetary policy effectiveness and autonomy that have been identified. First I summarize empirical academic literature on the evolution of monetary policy effectiveness and spillovers over these last decades. These analyzes provide insights on the general influence over time of economic globalization on monetary policy interdependence and effectiveness. Then, I compile the main
results of academic literature on the impacts of globalization on specific monetary policy transmission channels. Lastly, the impacts of globalization on some other dimensions of monetary policy autonomy are discussed.
Useful links:
- I currently updating the paper. Available upon request here
TRAVAIL EN COURS
Authors: Peeters, B.
Abstract:
This paper examines the stability of the international monetary system (IMS) from 1950 to 2020, focusing on the role of inflation spillovers among major advanced economies, specifically the US, UK, Germany, France, and Japan. The analysis reveals that periods of high inflation spillovers among these economies are associated with greater stability in the IMS. Conversely, significant instability in the IMS often precedes periods of low inflation transmission. To measure these inflation spillovers, a time-varying spatial regression model based on maximum likelihood and local kernel techniques is employed. The study also finds that, while the overall level of inflation spillovers has decreased with economic integration in recent decades, this trend did not hold following the collapse of the Bretton Woods IMS architecture.
Useful links:
Author: B. Peeters
Abstract:
This study begins by providing a concise overview of three prominent economic classification systems employed to analyze the global economy: the world-system approach, the institution-based approach, and the theme-based approaches. For each system, a historical contextualization is provided to highlight its origins, strengths, and weaknesses. Subsequently, I propose an update to the world-systems approach by incorporating the concept of intangible assets. This includes revised definitions for the concepts of center, semi-periphery, and periphery countries, as well as those of leader and follower economies. Finally, I present some empirical macroeconomic assessments of these concepts for the period 1970-2020 using macroeconomic longitudinal data.
Authors: B. Peeters; M. Sauvenier; C. Seynaeve
Abstract:
This study aims at discussing and assessing the Chinese debt-trap hypothesis, which asserts (in its simplest formulation) that China has purposely started lending to several developing countries in order to gain economic, political and diplomatic advantages resulting from their difficulties to pay back the contracted loans. Since 2017, this hypothesis spread considerably around the world, from mass media to more specialized economic newspapers. We propose a set of statistical Granger non-causality tests to empirically assess the Chinese debt-trap hypothesis, and in particular the singularity of Chinese lending strategies relative to those from other large Western and Asian countries, as well as those from international institutions. Our results invalidate the debt-trap hypothesis. While we found that the China does lend more frequently to riskier countries, at least since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), our core results reject any causal effects of Chinese loans on risk ratings and defaults for the debtors.
At a preliminary stage: contact me for more details
This research project aims at exploiting global macroeconomic data and indicators of natural disasters (such as WorldRiskIndex and EM-DAT) to estimate the impact of natural disasters on inward FDI and the industrialization of emerging and developing economies, and subsequently forecast the future impacts of climate change on industrialization.
At a preliminary stage: contact me for more details